Didi Deep Dive

In 2016, Didi beat Uber, THE Silicon Valley sweetheart at the time, to gain control of China’s ride hail market despite having far less capital, fewer partners, and a smaller engineering pool. Regulatory talk aside, Didi just had the biggest IPO in the U.S. since Alibaba. So is Didi the next tech giant to join the ranks of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent)? 

Their ~90% market share makes them one of the most successful companies to ever steamroll competition and they’re the only company with the distinction to get Meituan to retreat from a market. And the TAM is certainly large, even before getting into their global ambitions and flurry of new business initiatives 

But in this report we go beyond that perennially “under-penetrated” TAM to see how well their core business has performed relative to the common investor narrative. We go in-depth into the unit economics and all of the intricacies of Didi’s accounting methods in simple terms, ultimately arriving at an intuitive earnings build.

We also explore international operations, the regulatory situation and potential outcomes, AV and bike share–including separate unit economic builds for each, and much more!

In researching this piece we spoke with over 200 consumers, drivers, and industry executives who helped inform our views.

You can find the following in the report:

  1. Background
  2. The Business
    • Ride Hailing
    • Taxi Hailing
    • Chauffeur
    • Hitch
  3. China Mobility
  4. China Mobility: Consumers
  5. Unit Economics and Growth Vectors
  6. International
  7. Other Initiatives
    • Auto Solutions
    • Bike Sharing
    • Intra-city Freight
    • Community Group Buying
    • Autonomous and Electric Vehicles
  8. Autonomous Vehicles
  9. Regulations
    • Why did Didi IPO when it did?
    • Why didn’t Didi just list in Hong Kong?
    • Did Didi know about the investigation prior?
    • What are the broader implications for Chinese firms?
    • Are delistings imminent?
    • How will this be resolved for Didi?
  10. Revenue and NOPAT Build
  11. Valuation
  12. Risks
  13. Model Summary
  14. Conclusion

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